Ilan Kelman’s 2021 book Disaster by Choice is an informative, thought-provoking exploration of natural disasters and their major driving force - human choices. He draws upon years of research into disasters at UCL and highlights the often understated role choices form in turning events such as earthquakes, volcanoes, floods, etc… into disasters. Kelman defines a disaster as a situation that requires outside support for coping. There are two components of a disaster that researchers are usually interested in: (1) the hazard that triggers the disaster and (2) the vulnerability - the human-centred part of a disaster. These involve social, political, economic, environmental, and psychological factors. All of these influence the overall impact of a disaster. Of course, these all interact with and reinforce each other - introducing many challenges to planning and preparation.
Kelman examines many case studies, including examples of success and failure, and provides his insights on how we can ensure that better choices are made in places vulnerable to certain natural disasters. Kelman argues that disasters are primarily human-caused phenomena and that we should readdress the popular notion of a natural disaster moving forward.
The book begins with a short chapter outlining the sequence of events that led to the Haiti earthquake in 2010, one of the most devastating disasters in recent decades, which resulted in an estimated 250,000 deaths. Kelman demonstrates that this disaster was a cruel result of human choices dating back to the colonial era. Unfortunately, this case study provides us with a bleak insight into the ugly history of imperialism and how it left a country exposed and vulnerable to disasters.
A country that had to pay reparations to its enslavers (until 1946) led to a cycle of poverty and debt that meant Haiti could not invest in its infrastructure and left the nation underprepared for an earthquake over a century later, despite researchers and local officials knowing that earthquakes were a threat. Many wars, corruption, and the intervention of foreign powers ensured that Haiti could never escape this trap. When the earthquake inevitably struck, the country was left devastated, as many had warned.
Failures in managing the disaster and political instability, which was an issue before, amplified the disaster. Just some of these failures included: buildings not designed to withstand seismic disruptions, dense populations in an area prone to earthquakes, little effort to educate the public on what to do in the case of an earthquake, and a disastrous response that, in some cases, made things worse (e.g. the spread of diseases to Haitians from UN soldiers sent out to help). Other developed countries have built (and often codified into law) resilient buildings capable of withstanding earthquakes far more intense than the 7.0 magnitude earthquake that struck Haiti in 2010. Japan, for example, was affected by a magnitude 8.8 earthquake in 2011. Better preparation and infrastructure meant that far fewer people died due to building collapse following the shaking. Unfortunately for Japan, the resulting tsunami was not very well prepared for and many lost their lives due to the secondary hazard despite succeeding in defence against the shaking itself.
Aftermath of the Haiti earthquake, 2010. Building that were not designed to withstand shaking caused by an earthquake culminated in collapse such as that pictured. Source
Kelman describes the different people involved in the decision-making, and what they can do to alleviate disasters or prevent them from becoming disasters in the first place. Kelman also explores how the impact is measured. For example, economic damage alone would indicate that someone with multiple houses losing an expensive home would be worse off than someone with one small home losing their only property. Understanding the economic cost of a disaster can be useful to understand however it usually misses the bigger picture.
From the individual to more systemic political changes required to plan against disasters, Kelman emphasises the complexities that may arise in minimising vulnerability, especially when addressing the needs of those more vulnerable e.g. the elderly or physically disabled. The story of vulnerability is a complicated mixture of factors which include: (1) the scale of the disaster in terms of the population affected (either raw numbers or population adjusted), (2) the ideologies of those involved in decision making from individual to larger national and international scales and, (3) the economic constraints. This story outlines where we struggle to implement the necessary mitigating actions before, during, and after a disaster. Kelman then focuses on how we can address the problems and avoid catastrophes in the future.
Chapter 4, titled Vulnerability By Choice, is my favourite part of the book. Kelman uses this chapter to weigh up the responsibilities of individuals and the state to reduce vulnerability. He draws on several examples of where the state has failed to ensure the safety of its citizens - with sometimes fatal consequences. The Aeta tribe of the Philippines, during the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, were not allowed to be self-sufficient and were put in camps where negligence was widespread. During the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami, hundreds of prisoners died as the prison cells became submerged. Their safety wasn't accounted for by the state which should be responsible for ensuring safety. These examples highlight the essential role elected officials (and the electorate that gives them power) have; however, there are also many examples where individuals must ensure that they are educated and know what to do in response to a hazard they might encounter.
The book also explores efforts made to reduce vulnerability and the hazard itself e.g. by diverting hurricane paths, eliminating diseases, cloud-seeding to combat drought, etc… This gives another fascinating overview of the ways people can innovate to limit hazards. This should, however, always be in tandem with addressing the vulnerability. An obvious example of this is climate change. Decarbonizing our economy is still required regardless of the scientific advances in carbon removal and other technologies being worked on although they also form a valuable component of the efforts we make.
It makes sense for this type of book, which challenges the widely accepted way disasters are viewed, to delve into solutions moving forward. This is the purpose of the final chapter, which investigates the human failures that escalated past disasters, and looks at how we can avoid them from happening again. The chapter uses a devastating earthquake in Iran and similar or larger earthquakes in Japan and the U.S, with a much lower toll on human life, to identify the main sources of failure and successes and how these carry on to future scenarios. Learning from mistakes and making use of current technology and knowledge is essential in our endeavour to limit vulnerability. As Kelman says towards the end of the book, “human choices cause disasters, so human choices can prevent disasters”. We have the tools available to mitigate against disasters, and the contrast between Iran and Japan/U.S are perfect examples of how choice is the main driving force of a disaster.
Disaster by Choice offers a practical analysis of an often misunderstood and underrepresented aspect of disaster planning. I will check out more of Kelman's work, as he is excellent at disentangling complicated, multifaceted problems in an accessible way, which is of course important since effective communication lies at the core of disaster management. This book would also be a welcome addition to the school curriculum as it is engaging and encourages critical thinking and problem solving on varying scales. The author goes out of his way to ensure that many vulnerabilities are covered, while not overwhelming the reader. I would recommend this book to anyone interested in disaster planning - from a curious beginner like me to an expert in the field. This book contains something for everyone and was a favourite of mine last year.
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